Arizona's economic picture gets bleaker
Today's East Valley Tribune front page graphically shows Arizona's -- and the nation's -- economic situation. It's bad and still getting worse.

The EVT spread highlights the $76,100 drop in the medium value of a home in the Valley in the past year, as well as the approximately 71,000 job lost here from October 2007 to October 2008. Mercifully, in-migration slowed to half its normal level. Instead of normal population increase (200,000 annually in recent years) only about 100,000 people moved to Arizona this year.

The job picture is bleak, with construction jobs leading the retreat, down 37,600 for the year. Retail followed with a loss of 17,600. There were bright spots. Health care added 10,000 jobs, and the science/technology sector was on the plus side with 2,700 more positions this year. Oddly, though, government added 6,200 jobs in 2008. Clearly retrenchment hadn't kicked in yet. The EVT article offered no insight into the surge in government jobs.

Deep in the jobs story is a comment from Scottsdale-based economist Elliott Pollack that Maricopa County still has "30,000 to 50,000 too many homes." That's in line with predictions of no growth next year.

The home price article was illustrated with a two-year graph showing the dramatic decline in prices. But the worst news -- in human terms as well as an economic indicator -- came in this sentence: "Of the total recorded activity in the resale market, 48 percent represent homes that are being taken from the owner-occupant and put into banks or investors." That's ASU realty studies director Jay Butler's polite way of saying 48% of the activity was through foreclosures.