Looking Ahead to 2010 Arizona

Two stories today in the middle of the Republic's A Section have implications for Arizona's 2010 politics. They are:

McCain sets up re-election bid (no link available)
Napolitano may get other post

Conventional thinking is term-limited Gov. Napolitano wants to challenge Sen. McCain, who would be 74, in 2010. McCain showed some weakness in this year's Arizona presidential vote, which may or may not translate to weakness in a Senate race.

But the real question involves Napolitano. She's apparently been passed over for Attorney General but, according to the Republic's Matthew Benson, is still under consideration for the top jobs at Homeland Security or Energy.

If the Senate is her goal, she'd be crazy to take either job. First, it involves giving up the Arizona spotlight and turning over the governorship to Republican Jan Brewer.

Second, it involves taking on one of two of the potentially biggest no-win Cabinet positions. Done right, Energy in the Obama administration must involve pushing for less dependence on fossil fuels. It's the right course but, short-term, it has major political traps, such as advocating for a gas tax, opposing more drilling and the like. Advocating for more solar and wind power is translatable to Arizona politics but could easily be lost measured against bringing pain to energy consumers.

Homeland Security is even worse for Napolitano's prospects. Benson quotes an anonymous "prominent Arizona Democrat close to Napolitano": "It's terrorism, it's illegal immigration, it's intelligence," all areas which, the the source's mind, supposedly play to her strengths.

Arizona voters are mighty hard-nosed on immigration. Look how they beat McCain down, forcing him to modify a reasonable, progressive approach into the language of confrontation and deportation. The governor's prospect of doing better don't seem bright, especially in a secondary position.

So too with terrorism. If there is another attack within the U.S., Republicans will subject the Obama team to a steady drumbeat of "seven years without an attack only to be undone by lax Obama policies." That's a no-win position for the Secretary of Homeland Security. Even if the department performs spectacularly, with or without an attack, the credit will go to Obama.

Janet Napolitano's best route to the Senate is staying in place and dealing aggressively with the state budget crisis. Successfully working through that will only increase the popularity of the very popular governor. Besides -- politics aside -- it's the right thing to do. Jumping ship in a crisis never plays well.